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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 3 at the 64

Seattle Seahawks 10 – San Francisco 49ers 7

What Actually Happened

(10:46) 4-M.Dickson punts 57 yards to SF 7, Center-41-C.Stoll. 9-S.Moore to SF 25 for 18 yards (81-E.Saubert).

The Three Options

GO -0.36 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +2.15 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 64, worth -3.62 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.71 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 22, worth -0.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP