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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 2 at the 18

San Francisco 49ers 7 – Seattle Seahawks 10

What Actually Happened

(2:21) 4-J.Moody 36 yard field goal is BLOCKED (20-J.Love), Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead, RECOVERED by SEA-0-D.Lawrence at SEA 23. 0-D.Lawrence to SEA 31 for 8 yards (68-C.McKivitz).

The Three Options

GO +2.23 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.80 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 18, worth -0.87 EP
KICK +1.29 EP
What Happened
  • 93% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.48 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 28, worth -1.46 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.94 EP