Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 16 at the 69

Seattle Seahawks 10 – San Francisco 49ers 10

(8:21) 4-M.Dickson punts 53 yards to SF 16, Center-41-C.Stoll. 9-S.Moore pushed ob at SF 30 for 14 yards (88-A.Barner).

The Three Options

GO -1.99 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.37 EP
70% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 69, worth -3.85 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model