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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Atlanta Falcons
4th & 1 at the 47
Atlanta Falcons 7 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3
What Actually Happened
(9:03) (Shotgun) 7-B.Robinson right tackle to TB 47 for no gain (0-Y.Diaby).
The Three Options
GO
+1.31 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.98 EP
- 30% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 47, worth -2.52 EP
KICK
-0.76 EP
- 44% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.58 EP
- 56% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.62 EP
PUNT
-0.57 EP
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 13, worth -0.57 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
