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Tampa Bay Buccaneers

HC Todd Bowles
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Atlanta Falcons

HC Raheem Morris
Sunday 2025-09-07 · 13:00 Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta US 🏟 Dome Spread -1.5 O/U 47.5

Win Probability

TB
66.1%
ATL
33.9%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • TB offense: +0.165 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • QB edge to TB: Michael Penix (ATL) +0.110 vs Baker Mayfield (TB) +0.256 EPA/dropback
  • ATL defense: +0.047 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (18th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • TB defense: -0.079 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

TB 27
–
ATL 20
Projected margin: TB by 7 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 1

TB

Chris Godwin Jr. WR Out Ankle
Tristan Wirfs T Out Knee
Christian Izien S Out Oblique
Benjamin Morrison CB Out Quadricep
Vita Vea DT Questionable Foot

ATL

DeMarcco Hellams S Out Hamstring
Jack Nelson T Out Calf
Darnell Mooney WR Questionable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TB 23
–
ATL 20

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 13:26 TD ATL (13:26) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short right to 7-B.Robinson for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 0 – ATL 6
  • Q2 10:21 FG TB (10:21) 4-C.McLaughlin 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon. TB 3 – ATL 7
  • Q2 07:00 TD TB (7:00) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep left to 2-E.Egbuka for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 9 – ATL 7
  • Q2 00:57 FG ATL (:57) 6-Y.Koo 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. TB 10 – ATL 10
  • Q3 07:33 TD TB (7:33) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 7-B.Irving for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 16 – ATL 10
  • Q3 00:23 FG ATL (:23) 6-Y.Koo 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. TB 17 – ATL 13
  • Q4 02:23 TD ATL (2:23) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix scrambles up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 17 – ATL 19
  • Q4 01:04 TD TB (1:04) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep middle to 2-E.Egbuka for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 23 – ATL 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TB 4th & 8 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (12:21) 9-R.Dixon punts 40 yards to ATL 18, Center-86-E.Deckers, downed by TB-19-K.Johnson.

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 8 at the 41
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 60%

    (6:34) 13-B.Pinion punts 33 yards to TB 8, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 19-K.Johnson.

  • Q1 TB 4th & 5 at the 87
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP
    p(convert) 53%

    (4:59) 9-R.Dixon punts 61 yards to ATL 26, Center-86-E.Deckers. 14-J.Agnew to ATL 38 for 12 yards (41-K.Kieft).

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 5 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (3:33) 13-B.Pinion punts 48 yards to TB 9, Center-49-L.McCullough, out of bounds.

  • Q1 TB 4th & 1 at the 64
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 75%

    (:22) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 13-M.Evans to TB 42 for 6 yards (24-A.Terrell).

  • Q2 TB 4th & 6 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 82%

    (10:21) 4-C.McLaughlin 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 1 at the 47
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 44%

    (9:03) (Shotgun) 7-B.Robinson right tackle to TB 47 for no gain (0-Y.Diaby).

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 1 at the 27
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 86%

    (2:00) (Shotgun) 25-T.Allgeier up the middle to TB 25 for 2 yards (90-L.Hall).

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 7 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 91%

    (:57) 6-Y.Koo 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 15 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (:20) 9-R.Dixon punts 62 yards to ATL 21, Center-86-E.Deckers. 14-J.Agnew to ATL 38 for 17 yards (87-P.Durham; 57-J.Bullock).

  • Q3 TB 4th & 6 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 87%

    (11:46) 4-C.McLaughlin 44 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 17 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (9:57) 13-B.Pinion punts 59 yards to TB 14, Center-49-L.McCullough. 19-K.Johnson to ATL 32 for 54 yards (13-B.Pinion).

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 13 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 94%

    (:23) 6-Y.Koo 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 12 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 35%

    (11:09) 9-R.Dixon punts 42 yards to ATL 9, Center-86-E.Deckers, fair catch by 34-R.McCloud.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 2 at the 3 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 99%

    (3:01) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix scrambles left end to TB 2 for 1 yard (8-S.Dennis). The Replay Official reviewed the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix scrambles left end to TB 1 for 2 yards (8-S.Dennis).

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 4 at the 4 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 98%

    (2:23) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix scrambles up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.