4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 15 at the 83

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10 – Atlanta Falcons 10

What Actually Happened

(:20) 9-R.Dixon punts 62 yards to ATL 21, Center-86-E.Deckers. 14-J.Agnew to ATL 38 for 17 yards (87-P.Durham; 57-J.Bullock).

The Three Options

GO -2.26 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +0.43 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 83, worth -3.67 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -0.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 41, worth -0.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model