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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 8 at the 58

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Atlanta Falcons 7

What Actually Happened

(12:21) 9-R.Dixon punts 40 yards to ATL 18, Center-86-E.Deckers, downed by TB-19-K.Johnson.

The Three Options

GO -1.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.55 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 58, worth -3.51 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -1.15 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 18, worth -1.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model