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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 13 at the 18

Atlanta Falcons 10 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17

What Actually Happened

(:23) 6-Y.Koo 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +1.42 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.79 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 18, worth -0.09 EP
KICK +1.99 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 28, worth -0.79 EP
PUNT +0.51 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model