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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 12 at the 51

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17 – Atlanta Falcons 13

What Actually Happened

(11:09) 9-R.Dixon punts 42 yards to ATL 9, Center-86-E.Deckers, fair catch by 34-R.McCloud.

The Three Options

GO -0.79 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.09 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 51, worth -2.79 EP
KICK -1.35 EP
  • 35% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.37 EP
  • 65% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -2.80 EP
PUNT -0.92 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 14, worth -0.92 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model