4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 2 at the 3

Atlanta Falcons 13 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17

What Actually Happened

(3:01) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix scrambles left end to TB 2 for 1 yard (8-S.Dennis). The Replay Official reviewed the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix scrambles left end to TB 1 for 2 yards (8-S.Dennis).

The Three Options

GO +3.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.32 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 3, worth -0.10 EP
KICK +1.87 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.62 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model