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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Atlanta Falcons
4th & 4 at the 4
Atlanta Falcons 13 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17
What Actually Happened
(2:23) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix scrambles up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The Three Options
GO
+2.13 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
42% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.54 EP
- 58% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 4, worth -0.30 EP
KICK
+1.55 EP
- 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.59 EP
- 2% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.82 EP
PUNT
-0.44 EP
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.44 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
