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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 5 at the 57

Atlanta Falcons 7 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(3:33) 13-B.Pinion punts 48 yards to TB 9, Center-49-L.McCullough, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.25 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.97 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 57, worth -2.85 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.46 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 17, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model