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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 1 at the 64

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Atlanta Falcons 7

What Actually Happened

(:22) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 13-M.Evans to TB 42 for 6 yards (24-A.Terrell).

The Three Options

GO +0.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.64 EP
  • 25% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 64, worth -3.72 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -1.12 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 22, worth -1.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model