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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 16 at the 99

Tennessee Titans 6 – Denver Broncos 3

What Actually Happened

(:39) 3-J.Hekker punts 54 yards to DEN 45, Center-46-M.Cox. 19-M.Mims to TEN 38 for 17 yards (88-D.Martin-Robinson).

The Three Options

GO -4.41 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 83, worth +0.28 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 99, worth -6.40 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (116 yards).

PUNT -2.10 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 53, worth -2.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model