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Tennessee Titans

HC Brian Callahan
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Denver Broncos

HC Sean Payton
Sunday 2025-09-07 · 16:05 Empower Field at Mile High, Denver US ☀️ Clear Spread 8.5 O/U 42.5

Win Probability

TEN
20.4%
DEN
79.6%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to DEN: Bo Nix (DEN) +0.161 vs Cam Ward (TEN) -0.144 EPA/dropback
  • TEN offense: -0.093 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • DEN offense: +0.105 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • DEN defense: -0.080 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • TEN defense: +0.084 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (21st in the league)

Predicted Final Score

TEN 18
–
DEN 28
Projected margin: DEN by 10 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 1

TEN

Kevin Winston Jr. S Doubtful Hamstring
L'Jarius Sneed CB Questionable Knee
Kalel Mullings RB Questionable Ankle

DEN

Dre Greenlaw LB Out Quadricep
Malcolm Roach DT Out Calf
Nate Adkins TE Out Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TEN 12
–
DEN 20

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 14 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 12:03 FG TEN (12:03) 6-J.Slye 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker. TEN 3 – DEN 0
  • Q1 08:39 FG DEN (8:39) 3-W.Lutz 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw. TEN 3 – DEN 3
  • Q2 02:19 FG TEN (2:19) 6-J.Slye 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker. TEN 6 – DEN 3
  • Q2 00:22 TD DEN (:22) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass deep left to 14-C.Sutton for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 6 – DEN 9
  • Q2 00:06 FG TEN (:06) 6-J.Slye 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker. TEN 9 – DEN 10
  • Q3 11:59 FG TEN (11:59) 6-J.Slye 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker. TEN 12 – DEN 10
  • Q3 04:20 FG DEN (4:20) 3-W.Lutz 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw. TEN 12 – DEN 13
  • Q4 07:43 TD DEN (7:43) 63-A.Palczewski reported in as eligible. 27-J.Dobbins left guard for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 12 – DEN 19

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 6 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 76%

    (12:03) 6-J.Slye 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker.

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 15 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 91%

    (8:39) 3-W.Lutz 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 18 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24%

    (5:23) 3-J.Hekker punts 50 yards to DEN 8, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 19-M.Mims.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 3 at the 61
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.62 EP
    p(convert) 57%

    (11:48) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 53 yards to TEN 8, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 17-C.Dike.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 1 at the 83
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.29 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (9:42) 3-J.Hekker punts 65 yards to DEN 18, Center-46-M.Cox. 19-M.Mims pushed ob at DEN 36 for 18 yards (3-J.Hekker).

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 15 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 95%

    (2:19) 6-J.Slye 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 2 at the 52
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.74 EP
    p(convert) 63% p(FG) 27%

    (:54) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 45 yards to TEN 7, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 17-C.Dike.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 16 at the 99
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (:39) 3-J.Hekker punts 54 yards to DEN 45, Center-46-M.Cox. 19-M.Mims to TEN 38 for 17 yards (88-D.Martin-Robinson).

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 1 at the 17
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.53 EP
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 94%

    (11:59) 6-J.Slye 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 7 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 95%

    (4:20) 3-W.Lutz 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 6 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 25%

    (15:00) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 46 yards to TEN 7, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 17-C.Dike to TEN 19 for 12 yards (5-T.Sherfield). PENALTY on TEN-52-J.Williams, Unnecessary Roughness, 9 yards, enforced at TEN 19.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.08 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (11:53) 3-J.Hekker punts 46 yards to DEN 20, Center-46-M.Cox. 19-M.Mims MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by TEN-54-D.Mausi at DEN 24.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 13 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (6:48) 3-J.Hekker punts 48 yards to DEN 25, Center-46-M.Cox. 19-M.Mims to DEN 37 for 12 yards (88-D.Martin-Robinson; 92-J.Harrell).

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 1 at the 54
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 73%

    (5:11) 63-A.Palczewski reported in as eligible. 10-B.Nix up the middle to DEN 46 for no gain (93-T.Sweat). (Virtual Measurement).

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 10 at the 46 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 42%

    (4:16) 3-J.Hekker punts 40 yards to DEN 6, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 19-M.Mims.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 8 at the 36 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.10 EP
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 68%

    (1:05) 63-A.Palczewski reported in as eligible. 10-B.Nix pass incomplete deep right to 19-M.Mims.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 10 at the 64 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (:47) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward sacked at TEN 25 for -11 yards (29-J.McMillian). FUMBLES (29-J.McMillian) [29-J.McMillian], RECOVERED by DEN-23-J.Barron at TEN 34.