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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 6 at the 32

Tennessee Titans 0 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(12:03) 6-J.Slye 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +0.26 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.19 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 32, worth -2.02 EP
KICK +0.15 EP
What Happened
  • 76% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.06 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 42, worth -2.73 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model