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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 7 at the 15

Denver Broncos 10 – Tennessee Titans 12

What Actually Happened

(4:20) 3-W.Lutz 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.

The Three Options

GO +1.82 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.49 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 15, worth -0.37 EP
KICK +1.63 EP
What Happened
  • 95% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25, worth -0.87 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model