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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 13 at the 73

Tennessee Titans 12 – Denver Broncos 20

What Actually Happened

(6:48) 3-J.Hekker punts 48 yards to DEN 25, Center-46-M.Cox. 19-M.Mims to DEN 37 for 12 yards (88-D.Martin-Robinson; 92-J.Harrell).

The Three Options

GO -2.34 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.79 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 73, worth -4.10 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 31, worth -1.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model