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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 8 at the 36

Denver Broncos 20 – Tennessee Titans 12

What Actually Happened

(1:05) 63-A.Palczewski reported in as eligible. 10-B.Nix pass incomplete deep right to 19-M.Mims.

The Three Options

GO -0.07 EP
What Happened
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +1.32 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 36, worth -0.92 EP
KICK +1.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.18 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 46, worth -1.36 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.10 EP