Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 10 at the 64

Tennessee Titans 12 – Denver Broncos 20

What Actually Happened

(:47) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward sacked at TEN 25 for -11 yards (29-J.McMillian). FUMBLES (29-J.McMillian) [29-J.McMillian], RECOVERED by DEN-23-J.Barron at TEN 34.

The Three Options

GO -0.33 EP

What Happened

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +1.11 EP
67% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 64, worth -1.02 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model