Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 18 at the 58

Tennessee Titans 3 – Denver Broncos 3

(5:23) 3-J.Hekker punts 50 yards to DEN 8, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 19-M.Mims.

The Three Options

GO -1.65 EP

24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.14 EP
76% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 58, worth -3.16 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model