Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 17 at the 75

New York Jets 0 – Buffalo Bills 13

What Actually Happened

(11:54) 14-A.McNamara punts 54 yards to BUF 21, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 29-B.Codrington pushed ob at BUF 27 for 6 yards (41-M.McCrary-Ball; 26-I.Oliver).

The Three Options

GO -2.16 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.46 EP
70% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 75, worth -4.11 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model