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Buffalo Bills

2-0 HC Sean McDermott
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New York Jets

0-2 HC Aaron Glenn
Sunday 2025-09-14 · 13:00 ET MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US ☀️ Clear Spread -6.0 O/U 47.5

Win Probability

BUF
66.1%
NYJ
33.9%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: clear edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • BUF offense: +0.187 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • Josh Allen (BUF): +0.248 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • NYJ defense: +0.092 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • BUF defense: +0.086 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • NYJ offense: +0.020 EPA/play over its last 8 games (15th in the league)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

BUF 27 20–34
–
NYJ 21 14–28
Projected margin: BUF by 6 Projected total: 48

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 2

BUF

Ed Oliver DT Out Ankle
Shaq Thompson LB Questionable Hamstring
Tre'Davious White CB Questionable Groin
Taron Johnson CB Questionable Quadricep
Jordan Hancock S Questionable Shoulder

NYJ

Josh Reynolds WR Out Hamstring
Kene Nwangwu RB Out Hamstring
Jay Tufele DT Out Illness
Michael Carter II CB Questionable Shoulder
Mason Taylor TE Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

BUF 30
–
NYJ 10

Prediction missed by 14 pts on margin, 8 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:33 TD BUF (7:33) 4-J.Cook right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 6 – NYJ 0
  • Q1 05:04 FG BUF (5:04) 15-M.Prater 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-16-C.Johnston. BUF 10 – NYJ 0
  • Q2 14:06 FG BUF (14:06) 15-M.Prater 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-16-C.Johnston. ** Injury Update: NYJ-51-F.Mauigoa has returned to the game. BUF 13 – NYJ 0
  • Q2 09:00 TD BUF (9:00) 4-J.Cook left guard for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 19 – NYJ 0
  • Q2 04:25 FG NYJ (4:25) 6-N.Folk 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara. BUF 20 – NYJ 3
  • Q3 09:04 FG BUF (9:04) 15-M.Prater 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-16-C.Johnston. BUF 23 – NYJ 3
  • Q4 15:00 TD BUF (15:00) 18-E.Moore right end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ-8-A.Cisco was injured during the play. BUF 29 – NYJ 3
  • Q4 03:30 TD NYJ (3:30) (Shotgun) 2-T.Taylor pass short left to 89-J.Ruckert for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 30 – NYJ 9

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 11 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (13:37) 14-A.McNamara punts 55 yards to BUF 10, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 29-B.Codrington pushed ob at BUF 19 for 9 yards (41-M.McCrary-Ball; 51-F.Mauigoa).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 BUF 4th & 1 at the 25
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72% p(FG) 88%

    (10:25) 70-A.Anderson reported in as eligible. 22-R.Davis right tackle to NYJ 21 for 4 yards (11-J.Johnson; 51-F.Mauigoa).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 BUF 4th & 8 at the 10
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.81 EP
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 97%

    (5:04) 15-M.Prater 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-16-C.Johnston.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 20 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (2:41) 14-A.McNamara punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Touchback.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 BUF 4th & 7 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 74%

    (14:06) 15-M.Prater 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-16-C.Johnston. ** Injury Update: NYJ-51-F.Mauigoa has returned to the game.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 17 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (11:54) 14-A.McNamara punts 54 yards to BUF 21, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 29-B.Codrington pushed ob at BUF 27 for 6 yards (41-M.McCrary-Ball; 26-I.Oliver).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 3 at the 32
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EP
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 78%

    (4:25) 6-N.Folk 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 BUF 4th & 14 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 39%

    (:55) 16-C.Johnston punts 35 yards to NYJ 13, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 18-I.Williams. ** Injury Update: NYJ-51-F.Mauigoa has returned to the game.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 10 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 28%

    (:17) 14-A.McNamara punts 43 yards to BUF 10, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-37-Q.Stiggers.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 BUF 4th & 4 at the 15
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.74 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 95%

    (9:04) 15-M.Prater 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-16-C.Johnston.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 72
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.09 EP
    p(convert) 74%

    (7:04) 14-A.McNamara punts 51 yards to BUF 21, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 29-B.Codrington to BUF 21 for no gain (37-Q.Stiggers).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 BUF 4th & 1 at the 43
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 74% p(FG) 52%

    (3:14) 17-J.Allen right end to NYJ 36 for 7 yards (44-J.Sherwood). PENALTY on NYJ-1-A.Gardner, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at NYJ 36.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 19 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (14:00) 14-A.McNamara punts 44 yards to BUF 32, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 29-B.Codrington pushed ob at BUF 39 for 7 yards (26-I.Oliver).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 BUF 4th & 11 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (12:10) 16-C.Johnston punts 47 yards to NYJ 15, Center-69-R.Ferguson, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 2 at the 53
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 62% p(FG) 28%

    (9:48) (Shotgun) 2-T.Taylor pass short right to 82-A.Smith to BUF 45 for 8 yards (8-T.Bernard).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 18 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 28%

    (8:30) 14-A.McNamara punts 38 yards to BUF 15, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 29-B.Codrington.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 BUF 4th & 8 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (6:50) 16-C.Johnston punts 48 yards to NYJ 35, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 18-I.Williams to NYJ 46 for 11 yards (41-R.Gilliam; 42-D.Williams).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 4 at the 48
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 39%

    (6:03) (Shotgun) 2-T.Taylor pass short right to 32-I.Davis to BUF 42 for 6 yards (98-T.Sanders).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 2 at the 5 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 98%

    (3:30) (Shotgun) 2-T.Taylor pass short left to 89-J.Ruckert for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    See the full breakdown →