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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 14 at the 48

Buffalo Bills 20 – New York Jets 3

What Actually Happened

(:55) 16-C.Johnston punts 35 yards to NYJ 13, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 18-I.Williams. ** Injury Update: NYJ-51-F.Mauigoa has returned to the game.

The Three Options

GO -0.42 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.39 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 48, worth -2.23 EP
KICK -0.68 EP
  • 39% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -2.28 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 14, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model