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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 10 at the 53

New York Jets 3 – Buffalo Bills 20

What Actually Happened

(:17) 14-A.McNamara punts 43 yards to BUF 10, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-37-Q.Stiggers.

The Three Options

GO -0.23 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +1.75 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 53, worth -1.30 EP
KICK -0.06 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.68 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -1.11 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 15, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model