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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 4 at the 15

Buffalo Bills 20 – New York Jets 3

What Actually Happened

(9:04) 15-M.Prater 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-16-C.Johnston.

The Three Options

GO +2.11 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +5.01 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 15, worth -0.61 EP
KICK +1.36 EP
What Happened
  • 95% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.49 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 25, worth -1.20 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.74 EP