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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 19 at the 76

New York Jets 3 – Buffalo Bills 30

What Actually Happened

(14:00) 14-A.McNamara punts 44 yards to BUF 32, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 29-B.Codrington pushed ob at BUF 39 for 7 yards (26-I.Oliver).

The Three Options

GO -2.32 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.28 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 76, worth -4.13 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 34, worth -1.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model