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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 1 at the 25

Buffalo Bills 0 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(10:25) 70-A.Anderson reported in as eligible. 22-R.Davis right tackle to NYJ 21 for 4 yards (11-J.Johnson; 51-F.Mauigoa).

The Three Options

GO +2.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.27 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 25, worth -1.34 EP
KICK +0.81 EP
  • 88% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.24 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 35, worth -2.25 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model