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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 2 at the 53

New York Jets 3 – Buffalo Bills 30

What Actually Happened

(9:48) (Shotgun) 2-T.Taylor pass short right to 82-A.Smith to BUF 45 for 8 yards (8-T.Bernard).

The Three Options

GO +0.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.66 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 53, worth -2.60 EP
KICK -1.24 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -2.43 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 15, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model