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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 8 at the 83

Buffalo Bills 30 – New York Jets 3

What Actually Happened

(6:50) 16-C.Johnston punts 48 yards to NYJ 35, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 18-I.Williams to NYJ 46 for 11 yards (41-R.Gilliam; 42-D.Williams).

The Three Options

GO -1.97 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +1.24 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 83, worth -4.64 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -1.84 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 41, worth -1.84 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model