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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 9 at the 67

Detroit Lions 14 – Chicago Bears 7

What Actually Happened

(14:51) 3-J.Fox punts 45 yards to CHI 22, Center-49-H.Hatten. 12-D.Duvernay pushed ob at CHI 28 for 6 yards (46-J.Campbell).

The Three Options

GO -1.10 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.29 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 67, worth -3.45 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 25, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model