4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
CHI Away

Chicago Bears

HC Ben Johnson
@
DET Home

Detroit Lions

HC Dan Campbell
Sunday 2025-09-14 · 13:00 Ford Field, Detroit US 🏟 Dome Spread 6.0 O/U 46.5

Win Probability

CHI
24.2%
DET
75.8%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to DET: Jared Goff (DET) +0.294 vs Caleb Williams (CHI) -0.098 EPA/dropback
  • DET offense: +0.164 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • CHI offense: -0.104 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • DET defense: +0.168 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • CHI defense: +0.078 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (21st in the league)

Predicted Final Score

CHI 20
–
DET 28
Projected margin: DET by 8 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 2

CHI

Kyler Gordon CB Out Hamstring
Jahdae Walker WR Doubtful Ankle
Grady Jarrett DT Questionable Knee

DET

Trevor Nowaske LB Out Elbow
Sione Vaki RB Doubtful Hamstring
Taylor Decker T Questionable Shoulder
Kerby Joseph S Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CHI 21
–
DET 52

Prediction missed by 23 pts on margin, 25 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 12:17 TD DET (12:17) 0-J.Gibbs left end for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 0 – DET 6
  • Q1 08:38 TD CHI (8:38) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short left to 15-R.Odunze for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 6 – DET 7
  • Q1 02:45 TD DET (2:45) (No Huddle) 5-D.Montgomery up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 7 – DET 13
  • Q2 04:53 TD DET (4:53) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 89-B.Wright for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 7 – DET 20
  • Q2 02:00 TD CHI (2:00) 18-C.Williams pass short left to 15-R.Odunze for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 13 – DET 21
  • Q2 00:06 TD DET (:06) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 14-A.St. Brown for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 14 – DET 27
  • Q3 10:43 FG DET (10:43) 39-J.Bates 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox. CHI 14 – DET 31
  • Q3 06:28 TD DET (6:28) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep left to 1-J.Williams for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 14 – DET 37
  • Q4 15:00 TD DET (15:00) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 14-A.St. Brown for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 14 – DET 44
  • Q4 11:47 TD CHI (11:47) (No Huddle) 4-D.Swift up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 20 – DET 45
  • Q4 08:03 TD DET (8:03) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 14-A.St. Brown for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 21 – DET 51

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DET 4th & 6 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 37%

    (6:59) 3-J.Fox punts 40 yards to CHI 10, Center-49-H.Hatten, fair catch by 12-D.Duvernay.

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 2 at the 82
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EP
    p(convert) 64%

    (5:13) 19-T.Taylor punts 48 yards to DET 34, Center-46-S.Daly. 11-K.Raymond to 50 for 16 yards (36-J.Owens; 33-J.Jones).

  • Q2 DET 4th & 9 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (14:51) 3-J.Fox punts 45 yards to CHI 22, Center-49-H.Hatten. 12-D.Duvernay pushed ob at CHI 28 for 6 yards (46-J.Campbell).

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 1 at the 63
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72%

    (13:19) 18-C.Williams up the middle to CHI 37 for no gain (55-D.Barnes). The Replay Official reviewed the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 10 at the 37
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 69%

    (12:02) 59-G.Manu, 65-K.Eguakun and 95-P.O'Connor reported in as eligible. 39-J.Bates 55 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 9 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (13:52) 19-T.Taylor punts 54 yards to DET 21, Center-46-S.Daly. 11-K.Raymond to DET 24 for 3 yards (39-J.Blackwell).

  • Q3 DET 4th & 14 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 95%

    (10:43) 39-J.Bates 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 5 at the 54
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (7:45) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass incomplete short middle to 14-O.Zaccheaus (91-T.Williams, 6-T.Arnold).

  • Q4 DET 4th & 4 at the 4
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 98%

    (8:03) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 14-A.St. Brown for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 4 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (6:10) 19-T.Taylor punts 48 yards to DET 29, Center-46-S.Daly. 11-K.Raymond to DET 29 for no gain (12-D.Duvernay).

  • Q4 DET 4th & 6 at the 67 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (4:13) 3-J.Fox punts 62 yards to CHI 5, Center-49-H.Hatten. 12-D.Duvernay pushed ob at CHI 15 for 10 yards (52-Z.Cunningham).