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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 1 at the 63

Chicago Bears 7 – Detroit Lions 14

What Actually Happened

(13:19) 18-C.Williams up the middle to CHI 37 for no gain (55-D.Barnes). The Replay Official reviewed the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.

The Three Options

GO +0.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.61 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 63, worth -3.60 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -1.00 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 21, worth -1.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model