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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 4 at the 4

Detroit Lions 45 – Chicago Bears 21

What Actually Happened

(8:03) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 14-A.St. Brown for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +2.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.61 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 4, worth +0.18 EP
KICK +1.62 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 21, worth -0.90 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model