Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 4 at the 77

Chicago Bears 21 – Detroit Lions 52

(6:10) 19-T.Taylor punts 48 yards to DET 29, Center-46-S.Daly. 11-K.Raymond to DET 29 for no gain (12-D.Duvernay).

The Three Options

GO -1.47 EP

52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +1.09 EP
48% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 77, worth -4.24 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model