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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 6 at the 67

Detroit Lions 52 – Chicago Bears 21

What Actually Happened

(4:13) 3-J.Fox punts 62 yards to CHI 5, Center-49-H.Hatten. 12-D.Duvernay pushed ob at CHI 15 for 10 yards (52-Z.Cunningham).

The Three Options

GO -1.08 EP
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.41 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 67, worth -3.35 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.87 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 25, worth -0.87 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model