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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 2 at the 82

Chicago Bears 7 – Detroit Lions 7

What Actually Happened

(5:13) 19-T.Taylor punts 48 yards to DET 34, Center-46-S.Daly. 11-K.Raymond to 50 for 16 yards (36-J.Owens; 33-J.Jones).

The Three Options

GO -1.76 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.04 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 82, worth -4.96 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -2.46 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 40, worth -2.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EP