Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 12 at the 65

Cincinnati Bengals 24 – Jacksonville Jaguars 27

(10:54) 8-R.Rehkow punts 53 yards to JAX 12, Center-46-W.Wagner, downed by CIN-38-D.Ivey.

The Three Options

GO -1.45 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.63 EP
65% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 65, worth -3.61 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model