Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- CIN offense: +0.079 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
- Joe Burrow (CIN): +0.133 EPA/dropback in prior starts
- JAX defense: +0.088 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 2
JAX
CIN
No players on the report.
Pulled fresh for 2025 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 9 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 10:57 TD JAX (10:57) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 5-D.Brown for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 6 – CIN 0
- Q1 00:10 TD CIN (:10) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 1-J.Chase for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 7 – CIN 6
- Q2 11:00 TD JAX (11:00) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 33-B.Tuten for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 13 – CIN 7
- Q2 03:32 FG CIN (3:32) 2-E.McPherson 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow. JAX 14 – CIN 10
- Q2 01:39 FG JAX (1:39) 39-C.Little 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. JAX 17 – CIN 10
- Q3 11:09 TD CIN (11:09) (Shotgun) 6-J.Browning pass short right to 82-M.Tinsley for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN [41-J.Hines-Allen]. JAX 17 – CIN 16
- Q3 04:13 TD JAX (4:13) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 1-T.Etienne for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 23 – CIN 17
- Q3 02:46 TD CIN (2:46) (Shotgun) 6-J.Browning pass deep right to 5-T.Higgins for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 24 – CIN 23
- Q4 11:47 FG JAX (11:47) 39-C.Little 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. JAX 27 – CIN 24
- Q4 00:19 TD CIN (:19) 6-J.Browning up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 27 – CIN 30
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 CIN 4th & 12 at the 76Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36%
(9:27) 8-R.Rehkow punts 63 yards to JAX 13, Center-46-W.Wagner. 11-P.Washington to JAX 28 for 15 yards (26-T.Anderson; 50-S.Heyward).
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Q2 CIN 4th & 19 at the 59Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27%
(8:05) 8-R.Rehkow punts 50 yards to JAX 9, Center-46-W.Wagner. 11-P.Washington to JAX 13 for 4 yards (25-T.Brooks). ** Injury Update: JAX-22-J.Jones has returned to the game.
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Q2 CIN 4th & 3 at the 13Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.14 EPp(convert) 51% p(FG) 96%
(3:32) 2-E.McPherson 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.
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Q2 JAX 4th & 12 at the 24Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28% p(FG) 89%
(1:39) 39-C.Little 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
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Q3 JAX 4th & 1 at the 72Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.18 EPp(convert) 73%
(9:30) 9-L.Cooke punts 60 yards to CIN 12, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 15-C.Jones to CIN 23 for 11 yards (80-Q.Morris).
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Q4 JAX 4th & 7 at the 7Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34% p(FG) 98%
(11:47) 39-C.Little 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
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Q4 CIN 4th & 12 at the 65Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35%
(10:54) 8-R.Rehkow punts 53 yards to JAX 12, Center-46-W.Wagner, downed by CIN-38-D.Ivey.
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Q4 JAX 4th & 2 at the 47Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.01 EPp(convert) 60% p(FG) 42%
(6:09) 9-L.Cooke punts 35 yards to CIN 12, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 15-C.Jones.
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Q4 JAX 4th & 5 at the 7 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39% p(FG) 98%
(3:47) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete short middle to 7-B.Thomas.
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Q4 CIN 4th & 3 at the 85 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 60%
(2:45) (Shotgun) 6-J.Browning pass short right to 30-C.Brown pushed ob at CIN 28 for 13 yards (12-T.Hunter).