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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 3 at the 85

Cincinnati Bengals 24 – Jacksonville Jaguars 27

What Actually Happened

(2:45) (Shotgun) 6-J.Browning pass short right to 30-C.Brown pushed ob at CIN 28 for 13 yards (12-T.Hunter).

The Three Options

GO -1.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 82, worth +0.54 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 85, worth -4.62 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -1.55 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 43, worth -1.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model