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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 15 at the 22

Las Vegas Raiders 3 – Los Angeles Chargers 10

What Actually Happened

(9:58) 8-D.Carlson 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +0.60 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.56 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 22, worth -0.95 EP
KICK +1.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.67 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 32, worth -1.49 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model