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Los Angeles Chargers

HC Jim Harbaugh
@
LV Home

Las Vegas Raiders

HC Pete Carroll
Monday 2025-09-15 · 22:00 Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas US 🏟 Dome Spread -3.5 O/U 46.5

Win Probability

LAC
51.6%
LV
48.4%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LV offense: -0.052 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • LAC offense: +0.028 EPA/play over its last 8 games (14th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • Justin Herbert (LAC): +0.118 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

LAC 24
–
LV 22
Projected margin: LAC by 2 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 2

LAC

Denzel Perryman LB Out Ankle
Elijah Molden S Out Hamstring
Del'Shawn Phillips LB Questionable Toe
Daiyan Henley LB Questionable Illness

LV

Jackson Powers-Johnson G Out Concussion
Brock Bowers TE Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LAC 20
–
LV 9

Prediction missed by 9 pts on margin, 17 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 13:47 FG LAC (13:47) 11-C.Dicker 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-R.Lovato, Holder-16-J.Scott. LAC 3 – LV 0
  • Q1 09:07 FG LV (9:07) 8-D.Carlson 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole. LAC 3 – LV 3
  • Q1 00:28 TD LAC (:28) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 13-K.Allen for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 9 – LV 3
  • Q2 09:58 FG LV (9:58) 8-D.Carlson 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole. LAC 10 – LV 6
  • Q2 02:00 TD LAC (2:00) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep left to 1-Q.Johnston for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 16 – LV 6
  • Q3 07:33 FG LAC (7:33) 11-C.Dicker 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-R.Lovato, Holder-16-J.Scott. LAC 20 – LV 6
  • Q4 11:19 FG LV (11:19) 8-D.Carlson 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole. LAC 20 – LV 9

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 5 at the 20
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EP
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 93%

    (13:47) 11-C.Dicker 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-R.Lovato, Holder-16-J.Scott.

  • Q1 LV 4th & 17 at the 36
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 71%

    (9:07) 8-D.Carlson 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 10 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (8:06) 16-J.Scott punts 49 yards to LV 16, Center-41-R.Lovato, fair catch by 1-T.Tucker.

  • Q1 LV 4th & 7 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (5:45) 6-A.Cole punts 60 yards to LAC 21, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 12-D.Davis pushed ob at LAC 28 for 7 yards (44-T.Eichenberg).

  • Q2 LV 4th & 15 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 91%

    (9:58) 8-D.Carlson 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 6 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (8:14) 16-J.Scott punts 53 yards to LV 11, Center-41-R.Lovato, fair catch by 1-T.Tucker.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 6 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (4:42) 6-A.Cole punts 54 yards to LAC 9, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 2 at the 30
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 82%

    (10:24) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 13-K.Allen to LV 5 for 25 yards (22-E.Stokes, 52-E.Roberts).

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.58 EP
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 99%

    (7:33) 11-C.Dicker 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-R.Lovato, Holder-16-J.Scott.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 10 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 94%

    (11:19) 8-D.Carlson 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 1 at the 50
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71% p(FG) 37%

    (8:14) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert FUMBLES (Aborted) at LAC 45, recovered by LAC-12-D.Davis at LAC 44. 12-D.Davis to LAC 44 for no gain (36-K.Kelly).

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 4 at the 74 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (4:36) 16-J.Scott punts 56 yards to LV 18, Center-41-R.Lovato. 1-T.Tucker to LV 33 for 15 yards (28-H.Haskins).

  • Q4 LV 4th & 3 at the 60 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53%

    (3:57) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith sacked at LV 29 for -11 yards (0-D.Henley).

  • Q4 LV 4th & 6 at the 66 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.41 EP
    p(convert) 42%

    (3:16) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass incomplete short left to 16-J.Meyers.