4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 6 at the 64

Los Angeles Chargers 10 – Las Vegas Raiders 6

What Actually Happened

(8:14) 16-J.Scott punts 53 yards to LV 11, Center-41-R.Lovato, fair catch by 1-T.Tucker.

The Three Options

GO -1.27 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.98 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 64, worth -3.77 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -1.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 22, worth -1.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model