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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 2 at the 30

Los Angeles Chargers 17 – Las Vegas Raiders 6

What Actually Happened

(10:24) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 13-K.Allen to LV 5 for 25 yards (22-E.Stokes, 52-E.Roberts).

The Three Options

GO +1.93 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.27 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30, worth -1.25 EP
KICK +1.07 EP
  • 82% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.73 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 40, worth -1.91 EP
PUNT +0.16 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model