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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 2 at the 2

Los Angeles Chargers 17 – Las Vegas Raiders 6

What Actually Happened

(7:33) 11-C.Dicker 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-R.Lovato, Holder-16-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +3.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.56 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 2, worth +0.33 EP
KICK +1.57 EP
What Happened
  • 99% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.60 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.77 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.58 EP