Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 4 at the 74

Los Angeles Chargers 20 – Las Vegas Raiders 9

(4:36) 16-J.Scott punts 56 yards to LV 18, Center-41-R.Lovato. 1-T.Tucker to LV 33 for 15 yards (28-H.Haskins).

The Three Options

GO -1.36 EP

52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.16 EP
48% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 74, worth -4.06 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model