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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 17 at the 36

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 3

What Actually Happened

(9:07) 8-D.Carlson 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +0.04 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +5.04 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 36, worth -1.51 EP
KICK +0.79 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 29% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 46, worth -2.29 EP
PUNT +0.31 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model