Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 10 at the 65

Los Angeles Chargers 3 – Las Vegas Raiders 3

(8:06) 16-J.Scott punts 49 yards to LV 16, Center-41-R.Lovato, fair catch by 1-T.Tucker.

The Three Options

GO -1.86 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.96 EP
65% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 65, worth -3.95 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model