Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 7 at the 81

Las Vegas Raiders 3 – Los Angeles Chargers 3

(5:45) 6-A.Cole punts 60 yards to LAC 21, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 12-D.Davis pushed ob at LAC 28 for 7 yards (44-T.Eichenberg).

The Three Options

GO -2.13 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +1.29 EP
58% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 81, worth -4.58 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model