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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 4 at the 4

New England Patriots 12 – Miami Dolphins 7

What Actually Happened

(1:59) 36-A.Borregales 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

The Three Options

GO +1.92 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.51 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 4, worth -0.57 EP
KICK +1.51 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.55 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 21, worth -0.96 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP